Why Preseason Betting Is a Different Beast
The NBA preseason is back, and with it comes a flood of betting opportunities that look too good to pass up. But if you've been betting on the PBA or even the regular NBA season, you already know that preseason is a completely different animal. The 2026/27 preseason schedule is packed with games from October 5 to October 20, and while the stars will log a few minutes, the outcomes are often decided by guys fighting for a roster spot.
That's exactly where the traps lie. Pinoy bettors, especially those who frequent online sportsbooks and casino sites, often jump in with the same mindset they use for the regular season. The result? Burned bankrolls and frustration. This guide isn't about avoiding preseason betting altogether — it's about recognizing the seven most common traps so you can bet smarter. Think of it as your quick checklist before you place that next bet.
We've seen it all: bettors chasing favorites, overreacting to one highlight, and ignoring the fine print. Let's break down each trap and how to sidestep it.
Trap 1: Betting on Final Scores Like It's the Regular Season
In the regular season, a win is a win, and the final score matters. In the preseason, coaches couldn't care less about the final score. Their priority is evaluating players, testing lineups, and avoiding injuries. That means you'll see bizarre rotations, starters sitting entire fourth quarters, and end-of-bench players jacking up shots.
Why it's a trap: You might bet on the Lakers to beat the Warriors because LeBron and AD are playing, but if they sit the entire second half, a 15-point lead can evaporate. The final score often reflects who had the deeper bench, not who has the better team.
How to avoid it: Focus on first-half lines or quarter lines if your sportsbook offers them. These are more predictable because starters usually play the first half. Alternatively, bet on the total points — but even that can be tricky because defensive intensity is low.
“Preseason finals are decided by guys who will be in the G League next month. Don't treat them like Game 7.”
Trap 2: Overreacting to One Preseason Highlight
Social media is a highlight machine. A rookie drops 20 points in one preseason game, and suddenly he's the next big thing. Pinoy bettors are quick to hop on the bandwagon, betting on that player's team in the next game or even futures markets. But preseason highlights are often fool's gold.
Why it's a trap: One good game doesn't mean consistent production. Coaches might give that rookie more minutes in the next game, but they might also bench him to look at others. The sample size is tiny, and the level of competition varies wildly.
How to avoid it: Look at the broader context. Did the rookie perform against starters or third-stringers? Is he likely to get consistent minutes in the regular season? Bet on established patterns, not one-off explosions.
Remember, preseason is for experimentation. A guy who goes off for 30 might not even make the final roster.
Trap 3: Ignoring Coaching Tendencies and Rotation Patterns
Every coach approaches the preseason differently. Some, like Gregg Popovich, treat it as an extended practice and rest their stars liberally. Others, like Tom Thibodeau, might play their starters heavy minutes to build chemistry. If you don't know a coach's preseason philosophy, you're betting blind.
Why it's a trap: You might bet on the Spurs to cover a spread, not knowing that Popovich plans to sit his top six players for the entire game. Conversely, a coach fighting for his job might push his starters to win every preseason game.
How to avoid it: Do your homework. Follow beat writers on Twitter, read local coverage, and check injury reports. Coaches often announce their plans for rotations before the game. If a coach says he'll limit starters to 15 minutes, adjust your expectations accordingly.
Also, consider the schedule. Teams playing back-to-back preseason games often rest veterans in one of them. That's a huge factor.
Trap 4: Betting on Injured Players Returning
Preseason is when injured players test the waters. A star coming off surgery might play a few minutes to gauge his recovery. Bettors see his name in the lineup and assume he'll play like his old self. That's a mistake.
Why it's a trap: Players returning from injury are often rusty and cautious. They might avoid contact or play limited minutes. Betting on them to perform at a high level is risky.
How to avoid it: Check the injury report carefully. If a player is listed as “probable” or “questionable,” assume he'll be limited. Even if he plays, his effectiveness is uncertain. It's better to wait until the regular season when his role is clearer.
Furthermore, coaches often use preseason to ease players back, so don't expect heavy workloads.
Trap 5: Chasing Public Money and Line Movement
Public bettors love favorites and overs in the preseason. They see names like LeBron, Curry, and Doncic and automatically bet on their teams. Sportsbooks know this and set lines accordingly. Chasing public money is a classic trap.
Why it's a trap: The public often overvalues star power in the preseason. Lines move based on public betting, but that doesn't mean the line is accurate. In fact, sharp bettors often fade the public in preseason.
How to avoid it: Look for value, not popularity. If a line seems too high because of public money, consider the underdog. Also, pay attention to reverse line movement — when a line moves opposite to the public betting percentage, it often indicates sharp action.
Don't just bet on your favorite team because you want to see them win. Bet with your head, not your heart.
Trap 6: Neglecting the Total Because of Low Defense
Preseason games often feature high scores because defenses are less intense and rotations are chaotic. That might lead you to automatically bet the over. But that's not always smart.
Why it's a trap: While defenses are lax, offenses can also be disjointed. Teams are running new plays, and turnovers are common. A game might end with a surprisingly low total if both teams struggle to score efficiently.
How to avoid it: Look at pace and offensive efficiency in previous preseason games. Some teams push the pace to evaluate athletes, while others are methodical. Also, consider the total in context of the teams' regular-season tendencies. If a team is known for slow pace, their preseason games might not be as high-scoring as you think.
Don't just assume every preseason game is a shootout.
Trap 7: Betting on Futures Without Understanding the Market
Preseason is when sportsbooks release futures odds for the NBA championship, conference winners, and division winners. Pinoy bettors often jump on these, especially if they see value in their favorite team. But futures betting in the preseason is fraught with uncertainty.
Why it's a trap: Injuries, trades, and chemistry issues can derail a team's season before it even starts. A team that looks great on paper might underperform due to locker room drama or a key injury.
How to avoid it: If you're going to bet futures, do it with caution. Wait until the regular season starts to see how teams gel. Alternatively, bet small amounts on long shots for fun, but don't stake your entire bankroll on a preseason hunch.
Remember, futures odds don't change as much as you think, so there's no rush.